Is Jamaica on the Road to Recovery from this Recession?
The Jamaican economy remained in the grips of recession at the start of 2010 and, even with a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund the return to a growth path will be slow and uncertain. In this inaugural issue, MSB Business Review looks at some of the strategies and the economic sectors that are likely to lead the way.
Positive Signs in the Tourism Sector
With the global tourist industry now emerging from one of its toughest periods in recent decades the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) is forecasting a 3-4% increase in international arrivals in 2010 and a 2-4% rise in the Americas region. Assuming the forecast holds and the Jamaican industry maintains the resilience shown in the past two years the industry is likely to achieve stronger visitor arrivals this year, putting it in a position to stimulate economic activity locally. More...
Dennis E. Morrison, an economist and Observer newspaper columnist, was Chairman of the Jamaica Tourist Board (2002-2007) and Airport Authority of Jamaica, (1998-2007)
Finding the right path
What we are witnessing in Jamaica today is really a ‘recession within a recession.’ In the past decade Jamaica has only been able to muster a paltry 1.4 % average annual economic growth due largely to a weak macroeconomic multiplier and high levels of import in relation to GDP. Achieving higher growth rates with stability will require transforming the pool of unemployed into a productive force with an export focus; embracing innovation, quality and productivity; a renaissance of the ideas of Lewis and proponents of Plantation Economy theory; and the exploration of new ideas. More...
Cedric Wilson, an economist, lectures at the Mona School of Business and writes a weekly column for the Jamaica Observer
Prospects for Bauxite/Alumina Recovery
With the world economy showing signs of recovery in the first quarter of 2010 there are indications that the global aluminium industry is beginning to rebound. However, recovery of the Jamaican industry will lag behind world trends as the alumina plants are high-cost by global standards and so are not likely to come on stream until the global economic recovery strengthens. Hence, turnaround in the medium to long-term will depend substantially on the industry switching from oil to cheaper energy sources like coal or liquid natural gas (LNG) while achieving other operational efficiencies.
Alicia Roache in an MBA student at MSB and a business reporter at The Jamaica Observer.
